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We trade
the game.

Momento Systems trades basketball event contracts with its own capital. Every model, order and ledger entry is built in-house.

See the results Weekly report on Substack ↗
Since inception
+4.07%
All trades, net of fees, Oct 3 – Oct 26
Regular season
+1.36%
Oct 20–26 · +$275.28
Preseason
+2.67%
Oct 3–16 · +$213.61 on $8,000
MACHINE picks
34–14
70.8% of pre-tip forecasts, regular season
01What we do

Six parts.
One operation.

A

Trading

Automated execution on NBA and college basketball event contracts. Every order passes a risk layer that the strategy cannot bypass.

 B

AI/ML

STRYKE models players and lineups from every possession. MACHINE turns them into 10,000 simulated games per matchup.

 C

Technology

Rust in the order path, Python for research, and a replayable archive of every market and every play.

 D

Results

Weekly time-weighted returns, net of fees, reconciled against the exchange before they are published.

 E

Accounting

A double-entry ledger built from exchange fills and settlements. Differences are reported, never posted away.

 F

Cloud Ops

Dedicated hosts in AWS us-east-1, one job each, observed by a control room that cannot place an order.
02Results

+4.07%
since Oct 3.

The whole account since October 3, the same numbers as the weekly report: every order the bot placed and every trade entered by hand, net of fees, from exchange fills and settlements.

Weekly returns
Cumulative returnDaily · Oct 26, 2026
Preseason Regular season −10% −8% −6% −4% −2% 0% +2% +4% +6% Oct 3Oct 5Oct 12Oct 19Oct 26 +4.07%
03MACHINE

34 of 48
called.

MACHINE simulates each NBA game 10,000 times before tip-off. Its regular-season favourites have won 70.8% of the time, with a Brier score of 0.217 against 0.250 for a coin flip.

Day-by-day record
Mon Oct 26 6–3 · away / home win probability
WASWizards
39.3%60.7%
HornetsCHA
103–110
Hit
MINTimberwolves
46.7%53.3%
CavaliersCLE
125–127 OT
Hit
DALMavericks
53.6%46.4%
HeatMIA
113–109
Hit
CHIBulls
56.0%44.0%
CelticsBOS
99–134
Miss
PHXSuns
37.7%62.3%
ThunderOKC
114–125
Hit
INDPacers
45.3%54.7%
BucksMIL
102–110
Hit
ATLHawks
48.1%51.9%
RocketsHOU
110–120
Hit
MEMGrizzlies
48.9%51.1%
JazzUTA
110–105
Miss
GSWWarriors
47.5%52.5%
NuggetsDEN
134–114
Miss
04AI/ML
STRYKE shot profile page for a guard, showing a half-court zone map with points per attempt
STRYKEShot profile with empirical-Bayes points per attempt by zone, filtered by period, clock, score and teammates on the floor.
MACHINE distributions of simulated points, margin and total for one game
MACHINEFinal-score distributions from 10,000 simulated games.
MACHINE heat map of home win probability by margin and game time
MACHINEWin probability for every margin at every moment of the simulated game.
STRYKEMACHINEHow they fit together
05Writing

Every Monday,
in writing.

The weekly report covers the week's results, the research behind them and what changed. Good weeks and bad ones.

Subscribe on Substack Follow @momentosystems on X ↗

Questions, data requests or collaboration.

Contact Louie